Wealthsimple is preparing to launch a standalone prediction markets trading app for Canadian retail investors, offering access to contracts listed on the US exchange Kalshi.
The product, called Wealthsimple Predict, is in beta testing and is due to launch this summer. At launch, users will be able to trade nearly 4,000 event contracts, limited to categories the firm is permitted to offer in Canada.
Those categories are economic indicators, financial markets and climate. Available contracts will also need to meet Wealthsimple's own listing standards.
Prediction markets let users trade on the outcome of real-world events through contracts framed as yes-or-no questions. A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, while the trading price reflects the market's view of the probability of that outcome.
A contract trading at $0.70, for example, implies a 70% probability of a yes result. Users can also exit positions before settlement by selling contracts as market sentiment shifts.
Regulatory approval
The launch follows regulatory authorisation secured earlier this year. In March, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organisation authorised Wealthsimple to offer event and forecast contract trading, also known as prediction markets.
In Canada, these instruments are regulated as futures contracts, or derivatives. The approval applies to contracts with a settlement period of 30 days or longer and is limited to the economic indicators, financial markets and climate categories.
Wealthsimple is the second investment dealer to receive approval from the regulator to offer prediction markets. The move gives the Toronto-based financial platform a route into a market segment that has attracted growing interest internationally.
Brett Huneycutt, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer at Wealthsimple, said the launch would open up a market that has been less accessible in Canada.
"Prediction markets are the fastest-growing segment of global financial markets, letting traders turn an opinion into a position on the factors that shape our world - where inflation is headed, what happens to rates, or how the year unfolds. Until now, Canadians have had limited access," said Brett Huneycutt, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer at Wealthsimple.
User safeguards
Access to the app will require new clients to complete a Know Your Client process, using the same standard applied to self-directed brokerage accounts. The app has also been designed to introduce users to the product step by step.
Education features are built into the onboarding and trading process, including a guided orientation for a client's first trade. The app will also display disclosures and definitions covering trading risks, contract resolution, the ability to sell positions before settlement and liquidity warnings for lower-activity markets.
The approach suggests Wealthsimple expects some users will be new to prediction markets, which remain less familiar to retail investors than shares or exchange-traded funds. By adding prompts and warnings throughout the experience, the firm is positioning the product as a regulated investment activity rather than a novelty trade.
Kalshi, whose contracts will appear in the app, is a US-based prediction market operator. The launch selection will draw from Kalshi's listed contracts, but only from the subset that fits Canadian regulatory limits and Wealthsimple's internal review standards.
Broader push
The move adds another product line to Wealthsimple's expanding consumer finance business. The company began with managed investment portfolios and later introduced commission-free stock trading in Canada before extending into bank-style accounts, tax filing, credit cards and business banking products.
Wealthsimple now serves more than four million Canadians and held about CAD $125 billion in assets under administration at the end of March. That gives it a large existing customer base to market the new app to, though the prediction product will sit in a separate standalone service rather than inside its main platform.
Huneycutt said the app was designed to make the product easier to use while including protections for customers.
"Wealthsimple Predict gives Canadians a clean, well-designed way to access these markets, with education and guardrails built in from day one," he said.