Salesforce has released its predictions for the 2025 holiday shopping season, highlighting significant changes in consumer behaviour and the growing influence of artificial intelligence on retail experiences.
The data, which evaluates trends in economic confidence, spending habits and retail technologies, suggests a complex landscape emerging for both shoppers and retailers in the lead-up to the year's peak commercial period.
Rising consumer optimism
According to Salesforce's early data, shoppers began the first half of 2025 with caution due to economic uncertainty. However, there are signs that consumer confidence may be improving. The company indicates that 34% of global consumers now report feeling optimistic about the current state of the economy, marking a 22% increase over the levels recorded in mid-2024.
Additionally, a 27% increase has been observed in consumers who state their personal financial situation is improving compared to the previous six months. This trend is coinciding with a notable shift in how consumers are choosing to allocate their disposable income.
While savings and investments had been the leading destination for excess funds throughout the previous year, consumers are now increasingly directing disposable income towards physical goods, followed by continued savings, and placing experiences last.
AI-driven product discovery
Salesforce predicts a significant role for AI technologies in shaping the holiday retail landscape. Product discovery powered by AI recommendations is expected to deliver online sales of USD $260 billion and contribute USD $1.6 trillion to in-store sales during the holiday season.
The report also finds that 59% of shoppers currently using AI chat services for product recommendations intend to rely on such tools for finding holiday gifts for family and friends. This indicates a growing reliance on digital assistants for both inspiration and decision-making support at critical shopping times.
"Our research shows more than half of Canadians don't care how they interact with companies - as long as issues are solved quickly. AI chat assistants are the answer, delivering rapid support while transforming how consumers find brands and products, even becoming a go-to for personalised recommendations. For retailers looking to stay competitive, they must now offer quick, efficient, and highly personalised one-on-one experiences, and the AI-powered shopping landscape makes this possible." Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights and Strategy at Salesforce, said.
AI and workplace productivity
Retailers are also set to benefit from increased productivity through AI integration. Salesforce forecasts that 35% of retailers will be employing agentic AI to streamline workplace operations and improve employee efficiency during the holiday rush.
Unified retail channels
This year's predictions highlight the continued blurring of lines between online and physical retail. For Generation Z shoppers, Salesforce expects that for every USD $1 spent online during the holidays, an additional USD $3 will be spent in-store. This underlines the importance of physical locations, particularly when appealing to younger consumers who may be seeking a blended retail experience.
Resale market growth
The combination of trade uncertainty and a reduction in promotional offers has led to a projected upsurge in the resale market. Salesforce estimates total expenditure on resold goods will reach USD $64 billion for the holiday period, as value-driven consumers seek to manage costs and contribute to waste reduction.
Supporting this, 46% of surveyed shoppers plan to purchase previously owned items as gifts within the next six months, reflecting changing attitudes towards gift-giving and sustainability.
Price, quality and loyalty
Retail loyalty is expected to have a direct impact on spending patterns, with Salesforce predicting that returning customers will outspend new customers by 20% over the holiday period. Shoppers are cited as focusing on value and product quality, reinforcing the importance of meeting these expectations to maintain consumer allegiance during times of economic uncertainty.
Salesforce's commentary points towards retail being at a point of rapid change, driven by hyper-personalised discovery, conversational shopping interfaces, and evolving consumer expectations as shopping channels converge.